Fish pathogen screening and its influence on the likelihood of accidental pathogen introduction during fish...

Fish translocations are an important tool in fisheries management, yet translocating fish carries the risk of introducing unwanted pathogens. Although pathogen screening can be a useful tool for managing the risk associated with fish translocations, screening cannot eliminate this risk. This paper addresses these problems by demonstrating that two elements must be considered when designing efficient and effective aquatic pathogen screening programs: (1) how many fish to screen and (2) how long to continue screening programs when repeated testing detects zero infected individuals. The chance that infected fish are translocated despite screening is the joint probability of (1) the failure of the screening to detect infected fish in the sample and (2) the actual presence of infected fish in the translocation batch. Our analysis demonstrates that transfer of an infected fish is most likely to occur at moderately low levels of pathogen prevalence because the probability of detecting at least one infected fish through screening increases as pathogen prevalence increases. Small screening samples (i.e., with a low number of individuals) are most likely to detect infected fish when pathogen prevalence is relatively high (i.e., > 5%). Screening programs should terminate after some number of successive screening events in which no infected individuals have been detected. The number of screening events is a function of the cost of the screening program, the cost of a pathogen translocation, and the probability that an infected fish will be transferred. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the cost of a disease outbreak has relatively little effect on the length of time the screening program should continue. A more pronounced result is that screening programs that are inexpensive or allow a higher probability of pathogen translocation should be continued longer.