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Dynamics of a multihost pathogen in a carnivore community
M E Craft1, P L Hawthorne, C Packer
1University of Minnesota, Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, St Paul, MN 55108, USA. craft004@umn.edu
The Journal of Animal Ecology
|June 11, 2008
Summary
Social behavior significantly impacts multihost epidemics. Species with high social transmission risk spreading disease to others, while those with low social transmission bear the highest interspecific costs.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Multihost disease dynamics are complex, influenced by species interactions and transmission rates.
- Understanding how social behavior affects disease spread is crucial for predicting and managing epidemics in wildlife.
Purpose of the Study:
- To theoretically analyze multihost disease dynamics, incorporating social behavior and varying transmission rates.
- To model the 1994 Serengeti canine distemper virus outbreak to understand its spread among carnivores.
Main Methods:
- Developed a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for disease transmission among one to three sympatric species.
- Used the model to simulate the Serengeti canine distemper virus outbreak, focusing on carnivore social structures.
Main Results:
- The model successfully replicated the spatial patterns of lion deaths during the Serengeti outbreak when interspecific transmission was included.
- Social structure significantly influences epidemic size, speed, and spatial spread in multihost systems.
- Species with high intraspecific transmission rates are more likely to transmit diseases to other species.
Conclusions:
- Social structures play a critical role in shaping multihost epidemics.
- Species with high intraspecific transmission are key drivers of interspecific disease spread.
- Species with low intraspecific transmission are most vulnerable to the negative impacts of interspecific disease transmission.
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