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Increased cause-specific mortality associated with 2003 heat wave in Essen, Germany
Barbara Hoffmann1, Sabine Hertel, Tanja Boes
1Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany. barbara.hoffmann@uk-essen.de
Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. Part A
|June 24, 2008
Summary
The 2003 European heat wave significantly increased mortality in Essen, Germany, particularly for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Subsequent weeks saw varied mortality trends, with respiratory deaths remaining elevated.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Extreme heat events, like the 2003 European heat wave, are linked to increased mortality.
- The impact of heat waves on mortality can differ based on pre-existing health conditions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the effects of the 2003 heat wave on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Essen, Germany.
- To analyze the association between heat exposure and mortality for neoplasms, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases.
Main Methods:
- Utilized daily weather data for Essen and death certificates from 2002-2003.
- Employed Poisson generalized additive models, adjusted for weekday and season, to analyze mortality data.
- Compared daily mortality during and after the heat wave to a summer reference period.
Main Results:
- During the 2003 heat wave, daily mortality increased by 15% (neoplasms), 30% (cardiovascular), and 61% (respiratory).
- A week after the heat wave, neoplasm mortality decreased by 17%, while respiratory mortality saw a sustained 77% rise.
- Regression analysis confirmed a strong association between heat and overall mortality, especially for respiratory causes.
Conclusions:
- The 2003 heat wave in Essen was associated with increased overall and cause-specific mortality.
- Distinct mechanisms influence cause-specific mortality, with respiratory diseases showing the strongest heat association.
- Mortality patterns, potentially influenced by 'harvesting' effects, varied across disease categories.
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