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How much will China weigh? Perspectives from consumption structure and technology development.

Ming Xu¹, Tianzhu Zhang, Braden Allenby

¹Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 875306, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA.

Environmental Science & Technology

|July 2, 2008

Summary

This study models China's material metabolism, analyzing consumption and technology impacts. It predicts future resource use and waste, aiding global sustainability research.

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Area of Science:

Ecological economics
Environmental science
Industrial ecology

Background:

China's manufacturing growth significantly impacts global resource consumption and waste generation.
Understanding China's material metabolism is crucial for global environmental sustainability.
Existing models often lack integration of ecological and economic systems for material flow analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate current and future patterns of China's material metabolism.
To analyze the influence of consumption structure changes and technological development on material flows.
To provide a quantitative foundation for resource and waste management in China.

Main Methods:

Development and application of a Physical Input Monetary Output (PIMO) model.
Integration of ecological and economic systems using input-output modeling.
Analysis of multiple scenarios based on consumption and technology variations.

Main Results:

Quantitative predictions of China's material metabolism patterns for 2010.
Identification of key drivers influencing resource consumption and waste generation.
The PIMO model provides a robust framework for analyzing complex material flows.

Conclusions:

China's material metabolism is significantly influenced by consumption patterns and technological advancements.
The study offers crucial data for policy-making related to resource efficiency and waste reduction in China.
Findings contribute to a broader understanding of global material metabolism and its environmental implications.