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Current and future utilization of services from medical oncologists
Joan L Warren1, Angela B Mariotto, Angela Meekins
1Applied Research Program, and the Surveillance Research Program, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892-7344, USA. joan_warren@nih.gov
Summary
Demand for oncologists will rise significantly by 2020 due to more cancer survivors and an aging population. This trend may lead to a shortage of medical oncologists if not addressed.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Health Services Research
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Limited data exists on current and future oncologist utilization.
- Understanding demand is crucial for healthcare planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze current oncologist service utilization patterns.
- To project the future need for oncologists through 2020.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data and Medicare claims (1998-2003).
- Estimated patient encounters, visit frequency, and care settings.
- Projected future needs based on cancer incidence, prevalence, and population demographics.
Main Results:
- Oncologist use varied by care phase: 47% (initial), 36% (continuing), 70% (last year of life).
- Total cancer patients projected to increase 55% by 2020 (11.8M to 18.2M).
- Total oncology visits projected to rise from 38M to 57M (2005-2020).
Conclusions:
- Oncologist service utilization will significantly increase by 2020.
- Increased cancer survivorship and an aging population are key drivers.
- A potential shortage of medical oncologists necessitates proactive planning.
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