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Updated: Jul 4, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Supply-side risk adjustment and outlier payment policy
Michel Mougeot1, Florence Naegelen
1University of Franche-Comte, CRESE, Besançon Cedex, France. michel.mougeot@uiv-fcomte.fr
In prospective payment systems, outlier payments cover high hospital costs. The optimal outlier payment is based on realized costs when hospitals exert maximum cost reduction effort, regardless of patient severity.
Area of Science:
- Health economics
- Healthcare management
- Public health policy
Background:
- Prospective payment systems (PPS) are common in healthcare.
- Outlier payments are designed to manage unusually high hospital costs within PPS.
- Hospital cost reduction efforts are often made before patient severity is known.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the optimal structure of outlier payments in PPS.
- To analyze the impact of pre-determined cost reduction efforts on outlier payment design.
- To provide a framework for efficient hospital reimbursement under uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Theoretical modeling of hospital incentives.
- Analysis of cost reduction effort and patient severity.
- Derivation of optimal outlier payment rules.
Main Results:
- The optimal outlier payment should be based on the hospital's realized cost.
- This optimal payment applies when the hospital exerts its highest level of cost reduction effort.
- The finding holds true irrespective of the patient's specific severity.
Conclusions:
- Outlier payment policies can be simplified under certain conditions.
- Aligning payments with efficient effort levels can improve healthcare system performance.
- This model offers insights for designing equitable and efficient reimbursement strategies.
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