All-cause mortality and fatal alcohol poisoning in Belarus, 1970-2005

Although alcohol appears to be an important contributor to the burden of disease in the countries of eastern Europe, little systematic research has been undertaken on its impact on mortality in the former Soviet republic of Belarus. There may be a number of factors underlying the particularly negative effect of alcohol on mortality in Belarus, including the pattern of drinking and use of surrogates. A solid body of research and empirical evidence suggests that hazardous patterns of alcohol consumption (binge drinking) lead to quicker and deeper intoxication, increasing the propensity for alcohol-related mortality.

To estimate the aggregate level effect of binge drinking on the all-cause mortality rate, trends in the all-cause mortality and fatal alcohol poisoning rates (as a proxy for binge drinking) in Belarus from 1970 to 2005 were analysed employing AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series analysis in order to assess a bivariate relationship between the two time-series.

The results of time-series analysis suggest a close relationship between all-cause mortality and fatal alcohol poisoning rates at the population level.

This study supports the hypothesis that alcohol and all-cause mortality are connected closely in countries where the drinking culture is characterised by heavy drinking episodes and adds to the growing body of evidence that a substantial proportion of total mortality in Belarus is due to acute effects of binge drinking.