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An assessment of China's fertility level using the variable-r method
1Department of Sociology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0250, USA. yong.cai@soc.utah.edu
Demography
|July 11, 2008
Summary
China's fertility rate is below replacement levels, according to a study using the variable-r method. Data from 1990 and 2000 censuses confirm these findings on Chinese population trends.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Sociology
Background:
- Fertility levels in China have been subject to significant debate and uncertainty.
- Accurate assessment of fertility is crucial for population policy and socioeconomic planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To apply the variable-r method to estimate China's fertility level.
- To resolve controversies surrounding current Chinese fertility rates.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Preston and Coale (1982) variable-r method.
- Employed data from China's 1990 and 2000 population censuses.
- Incorporated data from annual population change surveys.
Main Results:
- The variable-r method confirmed fertility levels well below the replacement rate.
- Analysis indicates a sustained trend of sub-replacement fertility in China.
Conclusions:
- China's fertility rate has fallen significantly below the replacement level.
- The findings provide empirical evidence to address the uncertainty surrounding Chinese fertility.
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