Testing the Finno-Ugrian Suicide Hypothesis: geographic variation of elderly suicide rates across Europe

The pattern of geographic variation in European suicide rates in the high-risk group of individuals aged 65 years and over was investigated, in order to provide a further test of the Finno-Ugrian Suicide Hypothesis, i.e. the assumption that genetic differences between populations may partially account for spatial differences seen in the suicide prevalence. National suicide rates (average of 1970-2002) of the elderly from 34 European countries were regressed on geographic position terms, i.e. capital cities' latitude and longitude, along with transformations (e.g. squared latitude) and interaction terms (e.g. latitude multiplied with longitude) of these, which statistically modeled various possible geographic gradients in the suicide rates. In these regression models, the strongest and statistically significant predictor of elderly suicide rates was an interaction term of squared latitude multiplied with longitude, indicating that suicide rates increased to the northeast. This accounted for 13.8% (total), 20.8% (males) and 11.6% (females) of the cross-national variance in elderly suicide rates. No further geographic position term accounted for a significant increment of further variance in suicide rates over and above this predictor. Controls for national quality of living conditions and alcohol consumption rates left these results essentially unchanged. Replicating previous evidence based on suicide rates of the general population, suicide rates of the elderly show a northeastern gradient across Europe. This J-shaped belt of high-suicide-rate countries spans from Central Europe (Austria, Hungary and Slovenia) to Northeastern Europe (Finland and the Baltic countries). There are early historical and genetic communalities among the populations inhabiting this area, but, in terms of culture, recent history, political systems and socioeconomic factors, there is great diversity between these countries. The current findings thus add to cumulated empirical evidence consistent with the Finno-Ugrian Suicide Hypothesis.