The potential migration effect of rural hospital closures: a Danish case study

Rural hospital closures are high on the current healthcare agenda in Denmark. One concern raised is that rural hospital closures may further decrease population numbers in rural areas, as closures may induce some residents to move away from affected areas, i.e. closer to healthcare services elsewhere. The aim of this study was to investigate whether rural hospital closures may lead to out-migration in a Danish setting and to investigate which socioeconomic groups would be most likely to migrate.

The island of AErø was selected as the case study area. The island has one small hospital. By the use of fully structured telephone interviews, a representative sample of AErø inhabitants (N=1000) was asked how important it was for them to live close to a hospital and whether they would consider moving away if their hospital was closed.

Forty-seven per cent found it very important to live close to a hospital, and 29% would consider moving away if their hospital was closed. Multiple regression analyses showed that families with children were most likely to consider moving away and elderly people were least likely to consider moving away.

The study suggests that rural hospital closures may lead to out-migration, although the hypothetical method of questioning leaves uncertainty about the actual scale of out-migration. Families with children appear to be the most likely out-migrants. Elderly people may be hardest hit by a hospital closure, being most reliant on healthcare and least inclined to move away.