Establishment of a rice transgene flow model for predicting maximum distances of gene flow in southern China

We aimed to establish a rice gene flow model based on (i) the Gaussian plume model, (ii) data from a three-location x 3-yr field experiment on transgene flow to common rice cultivars (Oryza sativa), male sterile (ms) lines (O. sativa) and common wild rice (Oryza rufipogon), and (iii) 32-yr historical meteorological data collected from 38 meteorological stations in southern China during the rice flowering period. The concept of the gene flow coefficient (GFC) is proposed; that is, the ratio of the transgene flow frequency (G%) obtained from field experiments to the aggregated pollen dispersal frequency (P%) calculated based on the pollen dispersal model. The maximum distances of gene flow (MDGF) to traditional rice cultivars, ms lines, and common wild rice at a threshold value of either 1.0 or 0.1% were determined. The MDGF and its spatial distribution in southern China show that the gene flow pattern is significantly affected by the monsoon climate, the topography, and the outcrossing ability of recipients. We believe that the information provided in this study will be useful for the risk assessment of transgenic rice in other rice-growing regions.