A statistical analysis of the precision of reweighting-based simulations

Various advanced simulation techniques, which are used to sample the statistical ensemble of systems with complex Hamiltonians, such as those displayed in condensed matters and biomolecular systems, rely heavily on successfully reweighting the sampled configurations. The sampled points of a system from an elevated thermal environment or on a modified Hamiltonian are reused with different statistical weights to evaluate its properties at the initial desired temperature or of the original Hamiltonian. Often, the decrease of accuracy induced by this procedure is ignored and the final results can be far from what is expected. We have addressed the reasons behind such a phenomenon and have provided a quantitative method to estimate the number of sampled points required in the crucial step of reweighting of these advanced simulation methods. We also provided examples from temperature histogram reweighting and accelerated molecular dynamics reweighting to illustrate this idea, which can be generalized to the dynamic reweighting as well. The study shows that this analysis may provide a priori guidance for the strategy of setting up the parameters of advanced simulations before a lengthy one is carried out. The method can therefore provide insights for optimizing the parameters for high accuracy simulations with finite amount of computational resources.