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Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
Published on: June 30, 2020
Numerical simulation of birch pollen dispersion with an operational weather forecast system
Heike Vogel1, Andreas Pauling, Bernhard Vogel
1Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe/Universität Karlsruhe, Postfach 3640, 76021, Karlsruhe, Germany. heike.vogel@imk.fzk.de
Abstract:
We included a parameterisation of the emissions of pollen grains into the comprehensive model system COSMO-ART. In addition, a detailed density distribution of birch trees within Switzerland was derived. Based on these new developments, we carried out numerical simulations of the dispersion of pollen grains for an episode that occurred in April 2006 over Switzerland and the adjacent regions. Since COSMO-ART is based on the operational forecast model of the German Weather Service, we are presenting a feasibility study of daily pollen forecast based on methods which have been developed during the last two decades for the treatment of anthropogenic aerosol. A comparison of the model results and very detailed pollen counts documents the current possibilities and the shortcomings of the method and gives hints for necessary improvements.
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