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Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

Olivier Broennimann1, Antoine Guisan

  • 1Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. olivier.broennimann@unil.ch

Biology Letters
|July 31, 2008
PubMed
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Predicting invasive species spread is improved by pooling data from native and invaded ranges. This approach enhances accuracy and reduces uncertainty in forecasting future distributions, especially under climate change scenarios.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Invasive Species Biology
  • Biogeography

Background:

  • Traditional species distribution models train on native ranges, but invasive species may adapt to new climates.
  • Changes in realized climatic niche can limit the accuracy of predictions in invaded regions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and evaluate an alternative modeling approach using pooled data from all known ranges.
  • To improve predictions of invasive species' geographical extent, specifically for spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa).

Main Methods:

  • Developed and applied a modeling approach that incorporates data from both native (European) and invaded (North American) ranges.
  • Compared predictions from pooled data models with those trained solely on native or invaded ranges.
  • Projected species distribution under a severe climate warming scenario for the year 2080.

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Main Results:

  • The pooled data approach significantly improved invasion extent predictions compared to models using only the native range.
  • Pooled models performed comparably to models based solely on the invaded range.
  • Projections indicated fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability with pooled models, suggesting reduced uncertainty.

Conclusions:

  • Pooling data from native and invaded ranges offers a more robust method for predicting invasive species spread.
  • This approach enhances consensus among modeling techniques and decreases uncertainty in future distribution forecasts.
  • The findings are crucial for effective invasive species management under changing climatic conditions.