Epidemiological models for invasion and persistence of pathogens
Christopher A Gilligan1, Frank van den Bosch
1Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EA, United Kingdom. cag1@cam.ac.uk
Annual Review of Phytopathology
|August 6, 2008
Summary
Epidemiological models help predict plant pathogen invasion and persistence. Understanding these dynamics optimizes disease control strategies for agriculture and ecosystems.
Area of Science:
- Plant pathology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical modeling
Background:
- Understanding factors driving plant disease outbreaks is crucial for effective management.
- Existing models often lack the scope to address invasion and persistence across scales.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce epidemiological concepts for plant pathogen invasion and persistence.
- To present a flexible modeling framework for analyzing disease dynamics.
- To explore optimal disease control strategies using epidemiological principles.
Main Methods:
- Development of a unifying modeling framework for disease invasion and persistence.
- Introduction of criteria for invasion and persistence in simple and complex epidemic models.
- Analysis of spatial population structure and stochastic events in pathogen spread.
Main Results:
- Established criteria for disease invasion and persistence across scales.
- Demonstrated the utility of epidemiological models in identifying optimal control strategies.
- Highlighted the importance of spatial scales and chance events in pathogen dynamics.
Conclusions:
- Epidemiological modeling provides a robust framework for understanding and managing plant diseases.
- Tailoring control strategies to the spatial and temporal scales of disease is essential.
- Consideration of evolutionary dynamics is critical for sustainable disease management.
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