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Uncertainties in internal doses calculated for Mayak workers--a study of 63 cases
G Miller1, R Guilmette, L Bertelli
1Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA. guthrie@lanl.gov
Radiation Protection Dosimetry
|August 12, 2008
Summary
This study developed Bayesian methods to calculate radiation dose for Mayak workers exposed to Plutonium-239 (Pu-239). These validated methods are ready for application to the entire worker population.
Area of Science:
- Radiological protection
- Occupational health
- Nuclear medicine
- Biokinetics and dosimetry
Background:
- Mayak workers were exposed to Plutonium-239 (Pu-239).
- Accurate dose assessment is crucial for this population.
- Existing bioassay and air concentration data provide a basis for analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and test Bayesian methods for calculating radiation dose.
- To quantitatively characterize uncertainties in bioassay data.
- To apply these methods to Mayak worker data for improved dosimetry.
Main Methods:
- Utilized autopsy data, urine bioassay data, and air concentration data from 63 Mayak workers.
- Characterized bioassay data uncertainties using a Poisson-lognormal model.
- Fit biokinetic models by varying intake and model perturbation parameters.
- Employed Bayesian dose calculations using empirical Bayes approximation.
Main Results:
- Quantified uncertainties in bioassay measurements.
- Successfully fitted biokinetic models, refining parameters for lung, lymph node, liver, and bone retention.
- Validated Bayesian dose calculation methods using study case data.
Conclusions:
- The developed Bayesian methods are statistically self-consistent and robust.
- These validated dose calculation methods are ready for application to the entire Mayak worker population.
- Improved dosimetry will enhance understanding of Pu-239 exposure health risks.
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