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Updated: Jul 2, 2026

Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (Propensity Score) using the Military Health System Data Repository and National Death Index
Published on: January 8, 2020
Adjusting for reverse causality in the relationship between obesity and mortality.
1Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA. flanders@sph.emory.edu
Reverse causality, where disease causes weight loss and death, may bias body mass index (BMI) and mortality links. Researchers used models to show this bias can create a J-shaped curve, affecting mortality ratio interpretations.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Observed associations between body mass index (BMI) and mortality may be biased by reverse causality.
- Reverse causality occurs when obesity-induced diseases lead to weight loss and increased mortality, confounding the BMI-mortality relationship.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the impact of reverse causality on BMI-mortality associations.
- To assess how excluding diseases affects observed age-specific mortality ratios for BMI.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a state space model to analyze data.
- Employed sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of reverse causality and disease exclusion.
Main Results:
- Reverse causality was found to potentially decrease BMI-mortality ratios and create a J-shaped curve.
- Excluding diseases results in a balance of competing effects on mortality ratios, some increasing and others decreasing them.
Conclusions:
- Observed mortality ratios can be misleading due to reverse causality and analytical choices.
- Investigators should consider causal relationships and use sensitivity analyses and alternative methods for robust findings.
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