[Incidence, prevalence, and mortality estimates for chronic atrial fibrillation in Turkish adults]

We investigated the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of chronic atrial fibrillation (AF) in Turkish adults.

In a prospective and cross-sectional design, we analyzed 3,450 eligible participants (1707 men, 1743 women; mean age 52+/-13 years) of the Turkish Adult Risk Factor Study, who had been surveyed until 2006/07. Those who were dead and were found to have AF at baseline were excluded in the estimation of AF prevalence and incidence, respectively.

Atrial fibrillation was determined in 67 participants. The total follow-up was 34,100 person-years (mean 9.9 years). There were 43 prevalent and 46 incident cases, which corresponded to 1.25% and 1.35 per 1000 person-years, respectively. For age brackets of 32-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years, the prevalence rates were 0.46%, 2.09%, and 2.49%, and the incidence rates were 0.31, 1.98, and 3.50 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Both were higher in women of all age groups, with female-to-male ratios for overall prevalence and incidence being 1.69 and 1.19, respectively. Survival after onset of AF was 5 to 9 years and overall mortality was 6.8 per 100 person-years. Hypertension was the most common cause of AF, followed by advanced age. Contrary to expectations, waist circumference of men with AF was smaller by 1.9 cm than that of women. Serum C-reactive protein levels in men with AF (mean 1.21 mg/l) were significantly lower than women with AF (mean 2.62 mg/l) and than males without AF (mean 1.78 mg/l).

In Turkish adults, the current incidence and prevalence of chronic AF can be extrapolated to be 35,000 per year (22,000 in women) and 310,000 (200,000 in women), respectively. Considering the low incidence in males, it seems that inflammatory processes may play a minor role in the development of AF in Turkish men.