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When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species.

Iadine Chadès1, Eve McDonald-Madden, Michael A McCarthy

  • 1Unité de Biométrie et Intelligence Artificielle, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Unité Mixte de Recherche 875, BP 27 F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France. chades@toulouse.inra.fr

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Summary

Managing cryptic threatened species is challenging. It can be optimal to manage even without certainty of presence, but surveys guide resource allocation when belief in persistence is low.

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Area of Science:

  • Conservation Science
  • Wildlife Management
  • Decision Analysis

Background:

  • Declining populations of threatened species make them difficult to detect.
  • Conservation managers face dilemmas regarding resource allocation for uncertain species presence.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine optimal strategies for managing cryptic threatened species with uncertain presence.
  • To develop rules of thumb for allocating conservation resources based on species detectability and value.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) to model management decisions.
  • Employed analytical approximations to derive practical rules of thumb.
  • Applied a case study using parameters from the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae).

Main Results:

  • Managing for a cryptic species can be optimal even with uncertain presence, especially for highly threatened and valuable species.
  • Resource allocation shifts from management to surveying as belief in species persistence declines.
  • Management is abandoned when survey results indicate a sufficiently low probability of species existence.

Conclusions:

  • POMDPs provide a framework for optimizing conservation efforts for cryptic species.
  • The study offers actionable insights for allocating conservation resources to maximize effectiveness.
  • Decision-making should adapt based on evolving evidence of species persistence.