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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead.

V Ramanathan¹, Y Feng

¹Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0221, USA. vramanathan@ucsd.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|September 19, 2008

Summary

Global greenhouse gas increases have committed the world to 2.4°C warming. This committed warming, driven by greenhouse gases (GHGs), surpasses critical climate tipping points, with most warming unfolding this century.

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Area of Science:

Climate Science
Atmospheric Science
Environmental Science

Background:

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have risen significantly since the preindustrial era.
Recent estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inform current climate projections.

Purpose of the Study:

To estimate the committed global warming based on current GHG forcing and climate sensitivity.
To assess the implications of this committed warming for climate tipping elements.

Main Methods:

Utilizing IPCC estimates for greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity.
Analyzing the relationship between GHG concentrations and equilibrium warming.
Comparing projected warming with critical thresholds for climate tipping points.

Main Results:

The world is committed to a warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C–4.3°C) above preindustrial temperatures, even if GHG concentrations stabilize.
This committed warming exceeds the 1°C–3°C threshold for dangerous interference with climate tipping elements like Arctic sea ice and ice sheets.
Approximately 25% (0.6°C) of committed warming has already occurred, with the majority expected this century.

Conclusions:

Aggressive CO(2) mitigation can only limit future warming, not reduce the already committed 2.4°C rise.
The unmasking of aerosol cooling effects and ocean heat release will influence the rate of future warming.
Sea-level rise will continue for centuries, irrespective of immediate mitigation efforts.