[Decision analysis--a novel approach for calculating the cost-efficiency of medical tests]

Before issuing an insurance policy (e.g. life, disability, critical illness), insurers will usually carry out a medical risk assessment in order to prevent adverse selection. Often, the health questions in the application form will not be sufficient for this purpose since most applicants are not well-versed in medical science and terminology. If the insurer needs additional medical information such as a private medical attendant's report or current laboratory tests, however, costs will be incurred, which usually have to be paid by the insurer. What is the minimum sum insured which makes it worthwhile for the insurer to conduct certain screening tests, for example? Both the costs of medical screening and the associated savings are difficult to measure and involve a variety of different factors. Moreover, most parameters can only be estimated with limited accuracy. Therefore, we have developed a new calculation model using a decision-analysis approach. The new model makes it possible to analyse complex situations while taking into account the uncertainty of parameter estimation. Our findings show that in Germany, for instance, current sum thresholds for older applicants could in many cases be lowered and would still be cost-effective.