Predicting course and outcome in delusional psychoses

Eighty-four of 90 patients with delusional syndromes of different nosological attribution underwent a 7-year follow-up. From 179 items covering the whole spectrum of psychiatric description of index examination, 20 were found to be statistically significant in predicting different aspects of course and outcome by stepwise discriminant analysis. Course and outcome were defined by 6 criteria (course of illness, course of delusion, development of deficiency, length of inpatient care, adequate activity and social adjustment) encompassing separate (but only partly independent) aspects of a disorder. In contrast to the literature, clinical and psychopathological variables have major prognostic weight for different psychopathological as well as psychosocial aspects of outcome. Ten of the 20 significant items cover psychopathology, 4 pre-index course, 3 precipating events, 2 data from childhood, and 1 premorbid personality. Our results stress the importance of sensitive data collection and a clear separation of different outcome variables.