Trends in mortality among AIDS patients in Amsterdam, 1982-1988

In this study we evaluated the survival of 515 AIDS patients diagnosed in Amsterdam between 1982 and 1988 and followed-up until April 1990. Non-resident patients survived for a shorter period than resident patients (median survival time 10 versus 16 months). Residents had a 1-, 2- and 3-year survival of 56.1, 33.0 and 17.2%, respectively. Heterosexual intravenous drug users tended to have a better survival than homosexual men, although this was not significant. The survival time was longer for AIDS patients less than 30 years of age at diagnosis and varied for the different clinical manifestations leading to AIDS diagnosis. We calculated the 1- and 2-year survival probability by year of diagnosis for patients initially presenting with a Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP). The 1-year survival improved greatly in 1986 and continued to rise in the following years. The 2-year survival was similar in 1986 and 1987 (26.8 versus 28.2%) but increased in 1988 (38.9%). We conclude that besides better clinical experience and diagnostic methods, this improvement in prognosis could be explained by the start of secondary prophylaxis for PCP in 1985 and the introduction of zidovudine therapy in 1987.