[Mathematic modeling for prediction of waning immunity and timing of booster doses]

Under an environment that a vaccination rate is low and an infectious disease is prevalent, it is thought that most vaccinee got additional immunity by natural infection. On the other hand, in the area where the incidence of disease has been reduced by high rate vaccination, it is also decreased the chance of additional immunity by natural infection. Therefore susceptible individuals are increased because of the waning immunity. In the community where a vaccination rate is high, it may be necessary to consider the booster vaccination for adolescent and adult even if one completed the primary vaccinations. It may also be important to explore the timing of booster dose. In this paper, we attempt to give a comprehensive explanation of mathematical model for predicting the antibody duration, and we introduce the role of mathematical model on a consideration to the need and timing of booster doses after the primary series.