An assessment model for rating high-threat crop pathogens

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Plant Pathology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Nonindigenous crop pathogens pose significant threats to the U.S. economy through natural, accidental, or deliberate introductions.
• Developing detection and control for every potential pathogen is infeasible due to cost and scale.
• A prioritized list of high-threat pathogens is essential for effective resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a robust pathogen threat assessment model.
• To create a framework for prioritizing crop pathogens based on their potential impact.
• To provide a tool for strategic planning in agricultural biosecurity.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a decision-making methodology.
• Incorporated collective knowledge from subject matter expert panels.
• Defined and weighted 17 biological and economic criteria for threat assessment.

Main Results:

• Developed a quantitative model for assessing pathogen threats.
• The model provides a structured approach to threat prioritization.
• Demonstrated the model's applicability using the United States as a case study.

Conclusions:

• The AHP-based model offers a systematic method for identifying high-priority crop pathogens.
• This approach enables more effective allocation of resources for biosecurity.
• The model is adaptable for global application in agricultural risk management.