Is biofix necessary for predicting codling moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) emergence in Washington State apple...

The heat-driven phenology model used for initiating codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), management in Washington state was examined to determine the need for using the capture of the first moth as a method of synchronizing the model and phenology of field populations (= biofix). We examined trap catch data taken at 1-2-d intervals from two research orchards; one data set encompassed a 28-yr period and the other data set a 4-yr period. We also examined consultant-collected data taken at 7-10-d intervals from 15 sites (N = 81), mostly between 2001 and 2005. At the two research sites, we found the mean biofix occurred at 96 degree-days (DD) (DD Celsius by using 10 degrees C lower threshold and 31.1 degrees C horizontal upper threshold) after 1 January (SD = 14.4; min. = 68, max = 122). After correcting for longer sampling intervals in the consultant data set, the biofix at the nonresearch sites occurred at 97 DD (N = 50, SD = 14.4; min. = 74, max = 120), nearly identical to that at the research sites. We also examined the performance of the codling moth model at predicting moth flight and egg hatch using a biofix and by just accumulating heat units from 1 January. The model performance was similar in both generations regardless of whether a biofix was used. The elimination of biofix simplifies management and eliminates mistakes associated with poor trap catch, particularly in low-pressure situations where mating disruption reduces trap efficiency.