Mathematical modelling of epidemics under specific regard of adenoviral keratoconjunctivitis

At first ADV is presented as a typical pandemic. The contagiosity of adenovirus is high because of the viability of the virus on inorganic surfaces in medical offices up to 35 days. Outbreaks and epidemics occur 3-30 days after infection, which is mainly contracted from medical facilities. EKC is considered a notifiable condition in most countries, and outbreaks, suspects and infections must be reported. Symptoms like "pink eye", foreign body sensations, photophobia, pain, signs such as follicles, hemorrhages and corneal infiltrates, and vision decrease associated with malaise are frequently observed first in one eye, later involving the fellow eye. Unilateral disease has a high rate of misdiagnosis. Currently no vaccine or virustatic is available, which is effective, cost-efficient and tolerable. Treatment is symptomatic and antiinflammatory. Late scarring may be amenable to phototherapeutic keratectomy. Infection control measures focus on the disinfection of equipment and hands of staff, the handling of infected patients with gloves, spatial separation of infected individuals resp. cohorting of infected patients, use of unit-dose eye solutions, and the chlorination of pools by approved and registered disinfectants and germicides. In connection with this it is shown how to handle the dynamics of infections by mathematical models like cellular automation, systems of differential equations and to visualize periodic effects by Fourier Analysis and to calculate costs by mathematical programming. Using mathematical analysis the percentage of a population needing vaccination to prevent spreading of pandemic can be calculated. It is shown here that especially the method of cellular automation is a simple way to simulate complex epidemiological situations without completely knowing the mathematical details.