Elevated soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 75 concentrations identify patients with liver cirrhosis at risk of...

Elevated levels of the soluble 75-kd receptor for tumor necrosis factor-alpha (sTNF-R 75) are better predictors of mortality in cirrhosis than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score. Thus, we compared sTNF-R 75 with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), CTP, and the sTNF-R 75/55 ratio.

Ninety-two patients with liver cirrhosis (mean age, 55 years; range, 19-76 years; male, 66%; CTP stage C, 41%) were included in our prospective single-center survival study. The study setting was a tertiary care university clinic. Soluble TNF-R levels were determined, and the primary end point was death.

During > or =730 days, 44 patients died. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed sTNF-R 75 (> or =14 ng/mL) as an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 2.53; P = .006). By receiver operating characteristic, MELD and sTNF-R 75 were more accurate in predicting 6-, 15-, and 24-month mortality than CTP and sTNF-R 75/55. This was significant for 6 months (MELD, 0.78; sTNF-R 75, 0.75 vs sTNF-R 75/55, 0.60). In patients with high MELD scores (> or =15), survival was further reduced if sTNF-R 75 values were elevated (P = .035).

Elevated sTNF-R 75 levels independently predicted mortality and improved MELD on the basis of evaluation of prognosis, especially in patients with high MELD scores. Thus, sTNF-R 75 levels might be a useful cytokine-based prognostic marker in patients with liver cirrhosis.