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Updated: Jun 28, 2026

Modeling Tuberculosis in Mycobacterium marinum Infected Adult Zebrafish
Published on: October 8, 2018
[Bayesian model for the risk of tuberculosis infection for studies with individuals lost to follow-up]
Edson Zangiacomi Martinez1, Antonio Ruffino-Netto, Jorge Alberto Achcar
1Departamento de Medicina Social, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil. edson@fmrp.usp.br
Objective:
To develop a statistical model based on Bayesian methods to estimate the risk of tuberculosis infection in studies including individuals lost to follow-up, and to compare it with a classic deterministic model.
Methods:
The proposed stochastic model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of a longitudinal study. For simulating the unknown number of reactors at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, but not reactors at time 0, a latent variable was introduced in the new model. An exercise of application of both models in the comparison of the estimates of interest was presented.
Results:
The point estimates obtained from both models are near identical; however, the Bayesian model allowed the estimation of credible intervals as measures of precision of the estimated parameters.
Conclusions:
The Bayesian model can be valuable in longitudinal studies with low adherence to follow-up.
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