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How many physicians can we afford?

K Grumbach1, P R Lee

  • 1Institute for Health Policy Studies, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco.

JAMA
|May 8, 1991
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Physician supply is projected to increase, but rising expenditures per physician could add billions to healthcare costs by 2000. Practice overhead growth presents a challenge to controlling physician spending.

Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Healthcare Policy
  • Medical Workforce Analysis

Background:

  • Projecting future physician costs is crucial for healthcare planning and resource allocation.
  • Understanding the interplay between physician supply, income, and overall healthcare expenditures is essential.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To forecast physician costs for the year 2000 under various supply and expenditure scenarios.
  • To quantify the potential additional costs associated with different growth rates in physician expenditures.

Main Methods:

  • Scenario analysis projecting the supply of active, post-training patient-care physicians.
  • Modeling physician costs based on differing assumptions for expenditures per physician (e.g., Consumer Price Index, Gross National Product, historical trends).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Comparing projected costs against a baseline of a constant physician-to-population ratio.

    • Main Results:

    • Physician supply is projected to rise from 144 to 176 per 100,000 population between 1986 and 2000.
    • Additional costs could range from $21 billion to $40 billion (in 1986 dollars) by 2000, depending on expenditure growth rates.
    • Disproportionate increases in practice overhead costs are identified as a significant factor impacting physician expenditures.

    Conclusions:

    • The increasing supply of physicians alone may not mitigate rising healthcare costs.
    • Controlling the growth of expenditures per physician, particularly practice overhead, is critical for cost containment efforts.
    • Policy interventions may be necessary to manage physician costs effectively in the future.