Coarse-scale spatial and ecological analysis of tuberculosis in cattle: an investigation in Jalisco, Mexico

We have tested the hypothesis that coarse-scale environmental features are associated with spatial variation in bovine tuberculosis (BTB) prevalence, based on extensive sampling and testing of cattle in the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Ecological niche models were developed to summarize relationships between BTB occurrences and aspects of climate, topography and surface. Model predictions, however, reflected the distributions of dairy cattle versus beef cattle, and the non-random nature of sampling any cattle, but did not succeed in detecting environmental correlates at spatial resolutions of 1 km. Given that the tests employed seek any predictivity better than random expectations, making the finding of no environmental associations conservative, we conclude that BTB prevalence is independent of coarsescale environmental features.