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Using demand analysis and system status management for predicting ED attendances and rostering.
Marcus Eng Hock Ong1, Khoy Kheng Ho1, Tiong Peng Tan1
1Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, 169608 Singapore.
The American Journal of Emergency Medicine
|December 2, 2008
Summary
Emergency department (ED) attendances show predictable patterns, increasing in severity over time. A new rostering tool was developed to match doctor staffing to patient demand, optimizing emergency care.
Area of Science:
- Emergency Medicine
- Healthcare Operations Research
- Public Health
Background:
- Emergency department (ED) attendances exhibit non-random temporal patterns and historical trends.
- Understanding these patterns is crucial for effective resource allocation and patient flow management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To characterize the temporal demand patterns within an emergency department.
- To implement systems status management strategies for optimizing ED staffing based on demand.
Main Methods:
- An observational study analyzed patient data from the Singapore General Hospital ED over three years.
- Time series analysis was employed to identify physician activity norms based on patient severity.
Main Results:
- Annual ED attendances and patient case severity progressively increased from 2004 to 2006.
- Consistent temporal patterns emerged: seasonal peaks in June, weekly peaks on Mondays, and daily peaks around 11 am-12 pm.
- Seasonal peaks also correlated with public holidays.
Conclusions:
- Definite and consistent patterns in patient demand were identified in the ED.
- A demand-based rostering tool was successfully designed to align physician staffing with patient arrivals and severity.
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