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Estimating antiviral effectiveness against pandemic influenza using household data
Kathryn Glass1, Niels G Becker
1National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia. kathryn.glass@anu.edu.au
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|December 10, 2008
Summary
A new method estimates antiviral effectiveness during flu pandemics using household data. This helps optimize antiviral stockpiles and treatment strategies for emerging strains.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Epidemiology
- Pharmacology
Background:
- Current antiviral effectiveness estimates for influenza are strain-specific.
- Emerging pandemic influenza strains necessitate rapid assessment of antiviral effectiveness.
- Optimal use of antiviral stockpiles and comparison of prophylaxis versus treatment benefits require timely data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a novel method for measuring antiviral effectiveness using early pandemic data.
- To assess the impact of antivirals on susceptibility and infectivity in household settings.
- To determine the data requirements for accurate estimation of antiviral effectiveness.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing household outbreak size data from early pandemic phases.
- Analyzing data from households receiving antivirals for prophylaxis, treatment, or no antiviral intervention.
- Employing statistical models to assess antiviral impact on disease transmission.
Main Results:
- Estimates of antiviral effectiveness can be derived from approximately 200-500 households with a primary case.
- Fewer households are needed if data collection precedes high case numbers.
- Inclusion of prophylaxed and non-antiviral households improves estimate precision.
- Infectiousness profile patterns significantly influence estimates of antiviral effects on infectivity.
Conclusions:
- The proposed method enables early measurement of antiviral effectiveness during influenza pandemics.
- Accurate characterization of the infectiousness profile, informed by strain-specific data, is crucial for reliable antiviral effectiveness assessment.
- This approach supports informed decisions regarding antiviral use and stockpile management during public health emergencies.
