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Updated: Jun 27, 2026
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Published on: August 1, 2025
Expectancy change and adolescents' intentions to use marijuana
Jessica J Skenderian1, Jason T Siegel, William D Crano
1School of Behavioral and Organizational Sciences, Claremont Graduate University, CA 91711, USA. jessica.skenderian@cgu.edu
Summary
Drug prevention campaigns may inadvertently increase marijuana intentions by creating unmet expectations. When adolescents find marijuana less harmful than predicted, their intention to use may grow.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Public Health
- Adolescent Development
Background:
- Drug prevention often targets outcome expectancies, but expectancy violation effects are understudied.
- The expectancy violation framework offers insights into how unmet expectations influence behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between changes in marijuana expectations and future marijuana intentions in adolescents.
- To apply the expectancy violation framework in a real-world substance use prevention context.
Main Methods:
- Secondary analysis of a cohort of 1,344 adolescents (ages 12-18) from the National Survey of Parents and Youth.
- Assessed changes in marijuana expectations and intentions among nonusers at baseline and 1 year later.
Main Results:
- Changes in marijuana expectations were significantly associated with changes in intentions (p < .001).
- This association was strongest among adolescents who initiated marijuana use.
- The final model explained 31% of the variance in intentions (p < .001).
Conclusions:
- Changes in marijuana expectancies predict changes in marijuana intentions, aligning with laboratory findings.
- Caution is advised when presenting negative outcomes of marijuana initiation to adolescents.
- If perceived harms are less severe than expected, intentions to use marijuana may increase.
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