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Land surface anomaly simulations and predictions with a climate model: an El Niño Southern Oscillation case study
Debbie Putt1, Keith Haines, Robert Gurney
1Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, 3 Earley Gate, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AL, UK. djp@mail.nerc-essc.ac.uk
Abstract:
The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997-1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.
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