Global sensitivity analysis for model-based prediction of oxidative micropollutant transformation during drinking...

This study quantifies the uncertainty involved in predicting micropollutant oxidation during drinking water ozonation in a pilot plant reactor. The analysis is conducted for geosmin, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), isopropylmethoxypyrazine (IPMP), bezafibrate, beta-cyclocitral and ciprofloxazin. These compounds are representative for a wide range of substances with second order rate constants between 0.1 and 1.9x10(4)M(-1)s(-1) for the reaction with ozone and between 2x10(9) and 8x10(9)M(-1)s(-1) for the reaction with OH-radicals. Uncertainty ranges are derived for second order rate constants, hydraulic parameters, flow- and ozone concentration data, and water characteristic parameters. The uncertain model factors are propagated via Monte Carlo simulation and the resulting probability distributions of the relative residual micropollutant concentrations are assessed. The importance of factors in determining model output variance is quantified using Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (Extended-FAST). For substances that react slowly with ozone (MTBE, IPMP, geosmin) the water characteristic R(ct)-value (ratio of ozone- to OH-radical concentration) is the most influential factor explaining 80% of the output variance. In the case of bezafibrate the R(ct)-value and the second order rate constant for the reaction with ozone each contribute about 30% to the output variance. For beta-cyclocitral and ciprofloxazin (fast reacting with ozone) the second order rate constant for the reaction with ozone and the hydraulic model structure become the dominating sources of uncertainty.