Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 26, 2026
08:52
Use of an Influenza Antigen Microarray to Measure the Breadth of Serum Antibodies Across Virus Subtypes
Published on: July 26, 2019
Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks
W Bruine De Bruin1, B Fischhoff, L Brilliant
1Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA. wandi@cmu.edu
Global Public Health
|January 21, 2009
Summary
Medical and non-medical experts predict severe H5N1 pandemic casualties. Medical experts foresee a 15% chance of human transmission within 3 years, with limited vaccine or antiviral response, prioritizing surveillance. Non-experts were more optimistic about transmission and countermeasures.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Diseases
Background:
- Pandemic influenza, particularly H5N1 avian influenza, poses a significant global health threat.
- Expert opinion is crucial for assessing pandemic risks and planning mitigation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare expert judgments on key variables influencing a potential H5N1 pandemic.
- To understand differing perspectives between medical and non-medical experts regarding pandemic influenza.
Main Methods:
- Structured surveys administered to 19 medical experts and 17 non-medical experts.
- Quantitative judgments collected on transmission, countermeasures, and casualty predictions.
- Qualitative data gathered through open-ended questions to explore underlying beliefs.
Main Results:
- Medical experts estimated a 15% median chance of efficient H5N1 human-to-human transmission within 3 years, with low confidence in vaccine/antiviral availability.
- Non-medical experts perceived higher probabilities for transmission and effective countermeasures compared to medical experts.
- Both groups predicted severe casualties if transmission occurred, with medical experts favoring surveillance as a key mitigation strategy.
Conclusions:
- Divergent expert perceptions exist regarding H5N1 pandemic risk and response effectiveness.
- Despite differing views on countermeasures, both expert groups shared grave concerns about potential H5N1 pandemic outcomes.
- Further research into expert risk perception and communication strategies is warranted for pandemic preparedness.
Related Concept Videos
01:27Influenza
Influenza is an acute, highly communicable viral disease that affects the respiratory tract and is responsible for seasonal epidemics worldwide. Influenza A is the most prevalent type associated with widespread outbreaks and is subtyped based on two surface glycoproteins: hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N), as in H1N1. These glycoproteins are essential for viral infectivity, transmission, and immune recognition. Transmission occurs primarily through respiratory droplets and contaminated...
01:23Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast, controlled...
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast, controlled...
01:12Relative Risk
Relative risk (RR) is a statistical measure commonly used in epidemiology to compare the likelihood of a particular event occurring between two groups. This metric is important for evaluating the relationship between exposure to a specific risk factor and the probability of a particular outcome. It plays a crucial role in medical research, public health studies, and risk assessment. Relative risk quantifies how much more (or less) likely an event is to occur in an exposed group compared to an...
01:26Factors Affecting the Risk of Infection
The hosts' susceptibility to infection depends on several factors. The integrity of the skin and mucous membranes helps protect the body against microbial attacks. When the skin is altered, the chance of infection, limb loss, and even death increases.
The integrity and count of the white blood cells help the body resist pathogens and fight infection. When impaired, it reduces the body's resistance to pathogens. The acidic pH levels of the gastrointestinal, genitourinary tracts, and skin create...
The integrity and count of the white blood cells help the body resist pathogens and fight infection. When impaired, it reduces the body's resistance to pathogens. The acidic pH levels of the gastrointestinal, genitourinary tracts, and skin create...
01:28Infectious Diseases and Their Occurrence
Infectious diseases appear in populations through various transmission patterns, influenced by pathogen characteristics, population immunity, environmental conditions, and social behavior. Understanding these patterns is essential for effective public health surveillance and intervention. These categories—sporadic, outbreak, epidemic, pandemic, and endemic—help frame the nature and scope of disease events.Sporadic diseases occur irregularly and infrequently, without a predictable temporal or...
01:15Impact of Pharmacokinetic–Pharmacodynamic Models: Regulatory Decisions
PK–PD modeling has significantly influenced FDA regulatory decisions, particularly drug approval, dosage optimization, and labeling. These models integrate pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) to predict drug behavior and effects, aiding in optimizing dosing regimens and enhancing the probability of clinical trial success.One notable example is Nesiritide (Natrecor®), a recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide for treating acute decompensated congestive heart failure (CHF).