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Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
Susan Solomon1, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Reto Knutti
1Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. susan.solomon@noaa.gov
Human-caused climate change from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is largely irreversible for 1,000 years. Even after emissions stop, temperatures remain high, leading to severe impacts like rainfall reduction and sea level rise.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Atmospheric Chemistry
Background:
- Human activities significantly increase atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations.
- The magnitude and irreversibility of climate change are critical factors in assessing its severity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the long-term irreversibility of climate change caused by CO2 emissions.
- To project the duration of elevated atmospheric temperatures and associated impacts after emissions cease.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of climate model outputs and paleoclimate data.
- Modeling the response of atmospheric temperature and ocean heat content to CO2 concentration changes.
- Estimation of sea level rise contributions from thermal expansion and ice melt.
Main Results:
- Climate change due to CO2 is largely irreversible for at least 1,000 years after emissions stop.
- Atmospheric temperatures remain elevated for centuries due to slow ocean heat loss, despite reduced radiative forcing.
- Projected impacts include severe dry-season rainfall reductions and significant sea level rise.
Conclusions:
- Mitigation of CO2 emissions is crucial due to the long-lasting and irreversible nature of climate change.
- Anticipated impacts, such as sea level rise of meters and regional droughts, necessitate adaptation strategies.
- The study underscores the long-term commitment to climate change even after emission reductions.
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