Admission profile is predictive of outcome in acute hospital care

The purpose of this study is to describe predictors for discharge and one-year outcomes of acute-care hospital patients, 75 years of age or over, based on admission status information. We carried out a prospective study of a randomly selected patient population, from one urban acute-care hospital in each of the Nordic countries. 763 persons aged 75+ were randomly selected from acute admissions to the participating hospitals. 749 observations at discharge and 655 observations at one year were used in analyses.

Data were collected with the MDS-AC 1.1 instrument within 24 hours of admission, and at day 7 or discharge, whichever came first. Outcome information was collected either by interviewing the patient or from patient records or registers. Discharge and one-year outcome (home, institution, death) were modeled by multinomial logistic regression, with admission status variables as predictors.

At discharge, 84% of subjects returned home, 11% went to an institution and 5.6% had died. At one year, 64% were still living at home, 24% had died, and 12% had moved to an institution. For discharge outcome, those having hospital admission due to a new problem or exacerbation of an old one had a higher risk of dying (OR 3.3) than returning home. Moderate to severe cognitive problems predicted death (OR 2.2) and institutionalization (OR 8.6) compared with discharge home. Problems in instrumental activities of daily living predicted death (OR 3.1) and institutionalization (OR 6.0). At one year, those with exacerbation of an old problem (OR 2.1) or with a new or exacerbated existing problem (OR 2.3) had a higher risk of dying than of institutionalization or discharge home. Having some cognitive problems (OR 2.8) or moderate to severe cognitive problems (OR 6.6) predicted institutionalization, but not dying or discharge home. Those with some problems in activities of daily living had a higher risk of both dying (OR 1.7) and of institutional care (OR 2.7). Those with moderate to severe problems in activities of daily living had also a higher risk of institutional care (OR 4.7) compared with those living at home.

Evidence predictive of discharge and one-year outcomes in older acute hospital medical care patients seems to be visible from the beginning of the hospital stay. In order to increase the efficient use of health care services and quality of care, systematic standardized and streamlined assessment should be performed during the admission process.