Interactions between ecological traits and host plant type explain distribution change in noctuid moths

The ecological traits of species determine how well a species can withstand threats to which it is exposed. If these predisposing traits can be identified, species that are most at risk of decline can be identified and an understanding of the processes behind the declines can be gained. We sought to determine how body size, specificity of larval host plant, overwintering stage, type of host plant, and the interactions of these traits are related to the distribution change in noctuid moths. We used data derived from the literature and analyzed the effects of traits both separately and simultaneously in the same model. When we analyzed the traits separately, it seemed the most important determinants of distribution change were overwintering stage and type of host plant. Nevertheless, ecological traits are often correlated and the independent effect of each trait may not be seen in analyses in which traits are analyzed separately. When we accounted for other correlated traits, the results were substantially different. Only one trait (body size), but 3 interactions, explained distribution change. This finding suggests that distribution change is not determined by 1 or 2 traits; rather, the effect of the traits depends on other interacting traits. Such complexity makes it difficult to understand the processes behind distribution changes and emphasizes the need for basic ecological knowledge of species. With such basic knowledge, a more accurate picture of the factors causing distribution changes and increasing risk of extinction might be attainable.