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Updated: Jun 25, 2026
08:26
Comparative Analysis of Lower Limb Kinematics between the Initial and Terminal Phase of 5km Treadmill Running
Published on: July 17, 2020
Treadmill Velocity Best Predicts 5000-m Run Performance.
E Stratton1, B J O'Brien, J Harvey
1School of Human Movement & Sport Sciences, University of Ballarat, Ballarat, Australia.
International Journal of Sports Medicine
|February 10, 2009
Summary
Final treadmill velocity during a VO2max test is the best predictor of 5000-m run performance. This key physiological marker remained the strongest indicator of running speed both before and after endurance training.
Area of Science:
- Exercise Physiology
- Sports Science
- Human Performance
Background:
- Endurance performance is influenced by various physiological factors.
- Identifying the most predictive markers is crucial for training optimization.
- Previous research has explored maximal oxygen uptake and lactate threshold, but their relative importance for 5000-m performance requires further clarification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify the key physiological determinants that best predict 5000-m average run velocity.
- To compare the predictive power of these determinants before and after a six-week endurance training program.
- To assess the impact of training on maximal oxygen uptake, lactate threshold, and running economy in relation to performance.
Main Methods:
- Thirty-nine untrained participants underwent physiological testing (maximal oxygen uptake, lactate threshold, running economy, final treadmill velocity) and a 5000-m run.
- Tests were repeated after a six-week endurance training intervention.
- Correlation and stepwise regression analyses were used to determine the relationship between physiological variables and 5000-m performance.
Main Results:
- Maximal oxygen uptake, final treadmill velocity, and lactate threshold velocity/oxygen uptake all significantly improved post-training.
- Final treadmill velocity demonstrated the strongest correlation with 5000-m performance in both untrained (r=0.89) and trained (r=0.83) states.
- Running economy did not significantly correlate with performance, and lactate threshold velocity was the only variable to significantly improve the predictive accuracy of final treadmill velocity.
Conclusions:
- Final treadmill velocity achieved during a VO2max test is the single most important physiological predictor of 5000-m running performance.
- While training enhances key physiological markers, final treadmill velocity remains the primary determinant of performance.
- Lactate threshold velocity offers additional predictive value when combined with final treadmill velocity, highlighting its importance in trained individuals.
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