Factors affecting between-lake variation in the occurrence of epidermal papillomatosis in roach, Rutilus rutilus (L.)

The theory of island biogeography predicts that the probability of a species occupying an island depends on a dynamic equilibrium between extinction and colonization. Epidermal papillomatosis is a disease manifesting as skin tumours on fish. We studied the factors affecting the occurrence of the disease in roach, Rutilus rutilus (L.), in 34 lakes. The results of discrimination analysis suggest that maximum depth, percentage of the drainage area of the lake covered by lakes in the vicinity and altitude best identified diseased lakes. Comparison of diseased and non-diseased lakes revealed that lake area could also be regarded as a variable contributing to the occurrence of the disease. The sampling date, proportion of males and mean length of fish did not discriminate between the lakes. The probability of the disease occurring was highest in large, deep, low-altitude lakes which had a high percentage of lakes in their vicinity. Thus, the results indicate that the colonization and extinction processes probably contribute to the occurrence of papillomatosis in roach, as predicted by the theory. Furthermore, the large natural variation in the occurrence of the disease could mask possible environmental effects and between-lake comparisons should be interpreted with caution when using the fish-papillomatosis system as an indicator of environmental stress.