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Published on: August 8, 2013
Baseline hemoglobin concentration and creatinine clearance composite laboratory index improves risk stratification in
Roberto R Giraldez1, Marc S Sabatine, David A Morrow
1Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Insights
A new laboratory index (LI) using hemoglobin and creatinine clearance effectively predicts early mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. Adding the LI to the TIMI Risk Score (TRS) improves risk stratification for STEMI outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Clinical Chemistry
Background:
- Hemoglobin (Hgb) and creatinine clearance (CrCl) are established predictors of acute coronary syndrome outcomes.
- Early mortality prediction in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remains a critical clinical challenge.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel laboratory index (LI) for predicting early mortality in STEMI patients.
- To assess the added value of the LI to the TIMI Risk Score (TRS) for enhanced STEMI risk stratification.
Main Methods:
- A logistic regression model was used to combine Hgb and CrCl values into an LI.
- The LI's predictive performance was evaluated in two large STEMI cohorts (InTIME II-TIMI 17 and ExTRACT-TIMI 25).
- The LI's ability to improve risk stratification when added to the TRS was assessed using c-statistics.
Main Results:
- Lower Hgb (<15.0 g/dL) and CrCl (<100 mL/min) were independently associated with increased 30-day mortality in STEMI.
- The developed LI, calculated as (15-Hgb) + (100-CrCl)/8, demonstrated a 10-fold increase in mortality across risk groups.
- The LI significantly improved the discriminatory ability of the TRS (c-statistic increased from 0.755 to 0.789 in InTIME II and 0.747 to 0.777 in ExTRACT).
Conclusions:
- The laboratory index (LI) is a simple and potent tool for predicting mortality in STEMI patients.
- The LI enhances the prognostic capacity of the established TIMI Risk Score (TRS), offering improved risk stratification.
Background:
Hemoglobin (Hgb) and creatinine clearance (CrCl) are readily-available, routinely-obtained laboratory parameters that predict acute coronary syndrome outcomes. We sought to develop a laboratory index (LI) to predict early mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and determine the additional risk stratification offered by adding the LI to the TIMI Risk Score (TRS) for STEMI.
Methods And Results:
The association between Hgb and CrCl values obtained at hospitalization and 30-day mortality was evaluated in 14,373 STEMI patients undergoing fibrinolysis in Intravenous NPA for the Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction-17 (InTIME II-TIMI 17). Logistic regression models determined the optimal combination of laboratory variables into a LI. Prognostic utility of the LI was validated in 18,427 STEMI patients from Enoxaparin and Thrombolysis Reperfusion for Acute Myocardial Infarction Treatment (ExTRACT)-TIMI 25. In InTIME II, Hgb levels <15.0 g/dL and CrCl <100 mL/min were significantly and independently associated with increased risk of death (OR(adj) 1.22, 95% CI 1.15-1.29 for each 1 g/dL decrease in Hgb, P < .001, and OR(adj) 1.23, 95% CI 1.17-1.29 for each 10 mL/min decrease in CrCl, P < .001, respectively). In multivariable analysis, the optimal weighting of Hgb and CrCl to form an LI to predict mortality was (15-Hgb) + (100-CrCl)/8. The LI revealed a 10-fold increase in death across prespecified groups (P < .001). The LI offered additional risk stratification across all TRS groups and improved the discriminatory ability of the TRS (c-statistic from 0.755 to 0.789, P < .001). External validation in ExTRACT showed similar enhancement of the prognostic capacity of the TRS (c-statistic from 0.747 to 0.777, P < .001).
Conclusions:
The LI is a simple, powerful tool to predict death in STEMI, either separately or with the TRS.
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