Duration of delayed graft function is an important predictor of 1-year serum creatinine

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the importance of various factors on 1-year serum creatinine (SCr) as a surrogate endpoint for allograft survival among a series of kidney transplantations performed at 2 centers.

Two hundred sixty consecutive renal transplantations were included with overall mean age of 40 +/- 13 years, including 55% men and 19% living donor grafts. Factors considered for analysis were donor and recipient ages, and sexes, number of transplantations, panel-reactive antibodies, total number of HLA mismatches, cold ischemia time (CIT), acute rejection (AR) rate, and presence/duration of delayed graft function (DGF). Multiple regression analyses were performed for 1-year SCr, AR rate, and DGF duration.

One-year SCr was 1.46 +/- 0.5 mg/dL, 6-month AR rate was 22%, and DGF rate was 29% of mean duration 3 +/- 8 days. Multiple regression analysis for lower 1-year SCr value identified as significant female recipient sex, lower donor age, absence of AR within 6 months, and decreased DGF duration (P < .05). The only significant factor affecting AR rate was DGF duration. Finally, prolonged CIT was associated with a longer DGF duration.

We confirmed that 1-year SCr was primarily affected by well-known factors, such as AR incidence, donor age, and female recipient sex. However, we identified DGF duration as a significant factor affecting 1-year SCr. AR rate was also associated with DGF duration, which in turn depended upon longer CIT.