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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 25, 2026

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Published on: September 19, 2012

Base rates, contingencies, and prediction behavior.

Yaakov Kareev¹, Klaus Fiedler, Judith Avrahami

¹School of Education and Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel. kareev@vms.huji.ac.il

Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition

|March 11, 2009

Summary

Accurate predictions often rely more on base rate skew than signal-event contingency. This study introduces ExpPA, a measure of environmental regularity, showing it closely aligns with human prediction behavior.

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Jun 25, 2026

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Published on: September 19, 2012

Area of Science:

Cognitive psychology
Decision science
Behavioral economics

Background:

Predictions are crucial for decision-making.
Environmental cues, such as base rates and signal-event contingencies, inform predictions.
Understanding how individuals weigh these cues is essential for modeling predictive behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate human sensitivity to base rate skew and contingency in prediction tasks.
To introduce and validate a new measure, Environmental Predictive Accuracy (ExpPA), quantifying environmental regularity.
To examine the ability of individuals to compare and utilize base rate and contingency information for optimal prediction.

Main Methods:

Two experiments were conducted to assess prediction behavior.
Participants' sensitivity to base rate and contingency was measured.
A new metric, ExpPA, was formalized and tested against observed prediction behavior.

Main Results:

Participants' prediction behavior showed a strong correspondence with the proposed ExpPA measure.
Sensitivity to base rate information was tested against signal-event contingency.
Willingness to use costly predictors was analyzed in relation to base rate and contingency.

Conclusions:

The ExpPA measure effectively captures key aspects of human prediction behavior.
Base rate information plays a significant role in predictive judgments, sometimes outweighing contingency.
The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how individuals process environmental information for making predictions.