Predicting the dynamics of ascospore maturation of Venturia pirina based on environmental factors

Airborne ascospores of Venturia pirina were trapped at two sites in northern Italy in 2002 to 2008. The cumulative proportion of ascospores trapped at each discharge was regressed against the physiological time. The best fit (R(2) = 0.90, standard error of estimates [SEest] = 0.11) was obtained using a Gompertz equation and the degree-days (>0 degrees C) accumulated after the day on which the first ascospore of the season was trapped (biofix day), but only for the days with > or =0.2 mm rain or < or =4 hPa vapor pressure deficit (DDwet). This Italian model performed better than the models developed in Oregon, United States (R(2) = 0.69, SEest = 0.16) or Victoria, Australia (R(2) = 0.74, SEest = 0.18), which consider only the effect of temperature. When the Italian model was evaluated against data not used in its elaboration, it accurately predicted ascospore maturation (R(2) = 0.92, SEest = 0.10). A logistic regression model was also developed to estimate the biofix for initiating the accumulation of degree-days (biofix model). The probability of the first ascospore discharge of the season increased as DDwet (calculated from 1 January) increased. Based on this model, there is low probability of the first ascospore discharge when DDwet < or =268.5 (P = 0.03) and high probability (P = 0.83) of discharge on the first day with >0.2 mm rain after such a DDwet threshold.