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Updated: Jun 24, 2026
06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system
Elmar Kriegler1, Jim W Hall, Hermann Held
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
Summary
Scientists estimate significant risks of major climate system shifts, like ice sheet melt and Amazon dieback, due to global warming. Even with uncertainty, probabilities increase substantially with higher temperature increases.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Earth System Science
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Major Earth systems, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, ice sheets, Amazon rainforest, and ENSO, are vulnerable to global warming.
- Potential abrupt climate shifts in these systems pose significant risks for climate policy and global stability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify expert opinion on the probability of major climate system reorganizations under different global warming scenarios.
- To inform climate policy by assessing the likelihood of triggering critical climate tipping points.
Main Methods:
- Elicitation of subjective probability intervals from 43 climate scientists regarding the occurrence of major climate system changes.
- Analysis of expert estimates to determine lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least one critical event.
Main Results:
- Expert estimates reveal considerable uncertainty but assign significant probabilities to major climate system shifts.
- Conservative lower bounds for triggering at least one major event are 0.16 for medium warming (2-4°C) and 0.56 for high warming (>4°C) relative to year 2000 levels.
Conclusions:
- Significant probabilities exist for abrupt climate changes even under moderate warming scenarios.
- The likelihood of triggering critical climate tipping points increases substantially with rising global mean temperatures, underscoring the urgency of climate action.
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