A Theoretical Model of the Winter Survival Dynamics of Meloidogyne spp. Eggs and Juveniles

A theoretical model of the winter survival dynamics of Meloidagyne spp. was developed by considering the roles of egg hatching and juvenile mortality and the initial populations of eggs and juveniles at the onset of winter. Two distinct patterns of juvenile dynamics appear which depend upon the numerical values of the model parameters. The model predicts whether eggs or juveniles are the major component of overwintering nematode populations at any time prior to planting. The model could be elaborated to include egg viability and differential mortality of eggs but at some cost in ease of mathematical analysis. A general procedure for fitting the proposed model to experimental or observational data is outlined.