Richard III, Barer-Stoddart and the Daughter of Time

"Truth is the daughter of Time," said mystery writer Josephine Tey. This point, illustrated in her rehabilitation of the "villainous" King Richard III, is equally apt for a reconsideration of the 1991 Barer-Stoddart report on medical personnel. Canadian physicians have reviled these authors for "creating" a physician shortage by encouraging provincial cuts to medical school enrolment. Yet, data pre- and post-1991 are quite clear: their report did not and could not have had this effect. The physician-to-population ratio has been stable since 1989. Average physician hours of work have fallen, but per capita expenditures on physicians' services (inflation-adjusted) are rising rapidly. A flood of physicians from the major expansion of enrolments now in place threatens serious fiscal trouble over the next two decades, and is likely to pre-empt any significant system reform.