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Updated: Jun 24, 2026

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Published on: October 22, 2020
Smoking habit and mortality: a meta-analysis
Robert M Shavelle1, David R Paculdo, David J Strauss
1Life Expectancy Project, 1439 17th Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94122-3402, USA. Shavelle@LifeExpectancy.org
Cigarette smoking significantly increases mortality risk, with heavier smoking habits correlating to higher death rates. This meta-analysis quantifies the excess mortality risk associated with light, medium, and heavy smoking habits compared to non-smokers.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Toxicology
Background:
- Cigarette smoking is a leading cause of preventable death worldwide.
- The association between smoking quantity (pack-years) and mortality risk is established but not systematically synthesized.
- Quantifying the dose-response relationship between smoking habit and mortality is crucial for public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review and meta-analyze existing studies on the relationship between cigarette smoking habit and excess mortality.
- To provide a combined estimate of the relative risk (RR) of death for different smoking intensities (light, medium, heavy) compared to non-smokers.
- To synthesize the evidence on the dose-response relationship between smoking pack-years and mortality risk.
Main Methods:
- A meta-analysis of published research was conducted.
- Studies were selected based on their investigation of cigarette smoking habit and mortality outcomes.
- Relative risks (RR) of death were stratified by smoking intensity (light, medium, heavy) and pooled.
Main Results:
- A clear dose-response relationship exists between smoking intensity and excess mortality.
- Heavy smokers exhibit a significantly higher relative risk of death compared to light and medium smokers.
- The findings confirm and quantify the increased mortality risk associated with cumulative smoking exposure.
Conclusions:
- Cigarette smoking habit is directly associated with increased all-cause mortality.
- The magnitude of mortality risk escalates with the intensity of smoking.
- Public health strategies should emphasize smoking cessation and prevention, particularly targeting heavier smoking habits.
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